Christmas plans hang in balance as Sage warns national lockdown is ‘inevitable’

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Boris Johnson is hoping to introduce the same rules for Christmas  across the UK as leaders prepare to meet to discuss a “common approach” to festivities.

The Prime Minister sent a letter to devolved leaders earlier this week paving the way for talks on whether the same coronavirus measures should apply for gatherings in all parts of the country, Wales’s First Minister has revealed.

Britain is currently carved up into localised coronavirus restrictions, both across the devolved administrations and within individual regions.

However, the Government’s scientific advisers have called for a nationwide lockdown starting “now”, warning that the country has passed “worst-case” predictions.

Mark Drakeford told a press conference on Friday: “The Prime Minister wrote to me at the start of this week and said that I would be receiving an invitation from Michael Gove to a discussion on a common approach to Christmas across the United Kingdom.

“We’ve done our best to try to secure that meeting this week. It hasn’t yet been forthcoming.

“We need to get around the table together, we need to share that information, we need to share ideas.”

Mr Drakeford said that wherever possible, particularly over Christmas, he would like to see “as common an approach as we can craft together”.

But he added that it would have to recognise that the state of coronavirus and the responses to it “differ from one part of the UK to another”.

On Wednesday, a Cabinet minister warned that large families could be prevented from meeting at Christmas if coronavirus restrictions were still in place.

Environment Secretary George Eustice also suggested that families living in areas under different tiered restrictions may not be allowed to meet even in groups of fewer than six.

Mr Eustice told LBC: “Obviously if we do need to have restrictions in place, and prevent families from coming together in large gatherings, if that’s necessary to control the virus, that’s what we’ll have to do.”

When asked on Times Radio if families from different tiers would be able to spend Christmas together, he added this was “not provided for currently”.

Boris Johnson: It will be bumpy until Christmas and beyond

A Downing Street spokesperson later said: “The Prime Minister has been clear of his ambition to ensure that people may celebrate Christmas as a family this year.

“That’s why we have introduced a range of measures in order to control the spread of the virus and reduce the R rate.

“But as we’ve said, our best chance of defeating the virus, and getting back to some sort of normal, is if we work together and follow the guidance.”

It comes as the Government faces desperate calls from its scientific advisers to impose a national lockdown as soon as possible.

On Friday night, a key member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the country had “quickly breached the reasonable worst-case scenario” as he called on ministers to “act now”.

He tweeted: “To bring #COVID19 under control, we have to act now. The virus will not wait for us.”

The infectious disease expert wrote on Twitter: “Nobody ‘wants’ a lockdown, myself very much included. Full & generous support for people & businesses is a crucial part of making it work.

“But we have quickly breached the reasonable worst-case scenario, we are further ahead in this phase of the epidemic than many have assumed.

“The best time to act was a month ago but these are very tough decisions which we would all like to avoid. The second-best time is now.”

Meanwhile fellow Sage member Professor Christina Pagel, from UCL,  said another national lockdown was “inevitable”.

The director of clinical operational research told Sky News: “Broadly speaking, Covid is spreading, particularly in England and Wales. I suspect Wales’ cases will come down next week as their firebreak starts to take effect. But basically it’s spreading everywhere .” 

Asked if a second national lockdown is worth damaging the economy and people’s mental health, she said: “I think it’s inevitable, and given that it’s inevitable I think the sooner you do it the quicker it’s over and the more lives you save.”

Around 570,000 people per week are becoming infected with the virus across England, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Its infection survey found that cases “continued to rise steeply” in the week ending October 23, with an estimated 568,100 people in households becoming infected.

Scientific advisers at the top of Government believe it is now too late for a two-week national circuit-breaker to have enough of an effect and a longer national lockdown is needed to drive the reproduction number, or R value, of the virus below one.

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All parts of England are on course to eventually end up in Tier 3 restrictions, they believe, while deaths could potentially hit 500 per day within weeks.

Government scientists are also confident that more than 50,000 new cases of coronavirus are now occurring every day in England.

On Friday, the Government said a further 274 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19, while a further 24,405 lab-confirmed cases were recorded in the UK.

On the same day, Sage set the reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission for the whole of the UK at between 1.1 and 1.3 – representing the situation over the last few weeks.

Last week, the group said the R number was slightly higher at between 1.2 and 1.4.

Earlier, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the Government is “striving” to avoid issuing blanket restrictions nationwide as he insisted targeted measures could slow the growth in cases.

Coronavirus in numbers: UK death toll rises to 46,229

Asked whether ministers had been given a “very, very bleak” presentation by scientists on Thursday about rising cases and the future death toll, Mr Raab told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We are very careful to protect the integrity of the discussions and the information we have, but we do think the situation is serious.

“Having said that, we’re confident we’ve got the right measures and framework in place – which is not to have a blanket approach – with the target measures, both (in terms of) restrictions but also financial support on the areas where the uptick is the highest.

“We have seen, since we adopted that approach, a decrease in the rate of growth, but clearly there is still an uptick in the virus.

“We are battling a second wave, and we’re going to do everything we can in a targeted and focused way to repress and bring those numbers back down.”

One in five people in England will be living under the toughest coronavirus restrictions from Monday when West Yorkshire moves into Tier 3, while 58 per cent of the population will be living under either Tier 2 or 3 measures.

Nottinghamshire entered Tier 3 restrictions on Friday, and the West Midlands is expected to be moved up to the “very high risk” level shortly, with local authority sources saying this could take place “by the end of next week or the start of the following week”.

And in Hartlepool, Labour MP Mike Hill said the Tees Valley was heading towards Tier 3, adding: “Local leaders are thrashing out a package for the Tees Valley Region right now.”

More than a dozen regions will move from the lowest to the middle tier of restrictions on Saturday.

These include the East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston-Upon-Hull, North East Lincolnshire, North Lincolnshire, Dudley, Staffordshire, Telford, the Wrekin, Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire, the whole of High Peak, Charnwood, Luton and Oxford.

The Department of Health said on Friday evening that Carlisle would also move into Tier 2 on Saturday.